AimlesslyChasingAmy

After working for the last few months in a mad frenzy, I suddenly found myself in a strange limbo.  At first I thought it was just part of a normal cycle.  A major piece of the book project was completed, I got to kick back with the family during the holidays, and the lawyers wanted their billable hours to fuck around with contracts.  But yesterday, I realized the true source; clouds.

I’m definitely solar powered.  While everyone else winced at the piercing Vegas sun during the WSOP, I reveled in it.  Without sun, my motivational batteries just seem to run down.  On a cloudy day, walking down the street to get the mail is an effort.  A nap always sounds good.  Unfortunately, I just discovered that I’m not alone in my desire to find a warm cozy place to hole up in.  Yesterday I realized that a little noise I’ve been hearing in the house is rodent related. 

In the past year, there has been a lot of construction not too far from my house, including a new water run off system and the critters have been moving closer to the ‘hood; more raccoons, more deer, and more rats.  I know that most people would be freaking out at the prospect of rats in the attic (and on most levels I am), but part of me identifies with their need to snuggle up in my cozy insulation.  This of course hasn’t stopped me from setting my Rat Zapper 2000 up there.  I thought about putting one of the cats up there, but neither one looked like they were in shape to enter the attic Thunderdome.

If you know me at all, you know I believe there are a lot of similarities between investing and poker.  I first started playing poker because I was looking for an exercise to reinforce my sell-side discipline.  Most investors have pretty good buy-side discipline; selecting the right stocks to buy.  But most investors have a tough time selling stocks when it’s more than obvious that they should be ditched.  Poker is a little like that.  A lot of players understand the importance of a good starting hand, but sometimes have a hard time letting it go when they miss the flop or when they are obviously beat.  The thing about poker, however, is that you get punished pretty regularly and in “real time” when you don’t let go of a good hand gone bad.  Of course my little exercise erupted into a full blown poker obsession.

At any rate, I was thinking a lot about poker while I was watching the market yesterday.  I realized that another similarity between poker and investing was patterns.  In poker, understanding an opponent’s betting pattern is paramount.  Do they always bet the flop after a pre-flop raise?  Are they known to always raise on the button when no one else has entered the pot?

What made me think of this was watching World Poker Tour Enterprises (WPTE).  The stock has been on a fairly steady decline all year and has been waffling around a market cap just about equal to its cash on hand.  At the very end of the trading session yesterday, it popped up over 9% on what looked like a late and large acquisition.  I found myself thinking, ”Brad Berman, What are you up to?”

I have no evidence that it was Brad making an end of day purchase, but it fits the pattern he displayed this summer.  Most of the other insiders have been selling their shares all year; Brad is one of the few acquirers.  Even if it was Brad, I have little insight into his motivation.  I guess if he liked it at $3 this summer, he should love it at under $2 now.  Or maybe it’s a cheap way to boost the stock and buoy shareholder confidence.  At these prices and low trading volumes, it doesn’t take a lot of money to move the stock.  Or maybe it’s part of a gradual plan to take WPTE private; a rumor long held (or hoped for) on the forums.  I don’t own a position in WPTE - never have and probably never will.  But I’ll keep my eye on it…and ponder the reason behind the pattern. 

Pictures:
1995 eclipse (from nasa.gov)
Brad Berman (2007 WSOP)
Lyle Berman (2007 WPT Championship)