AimlesslyChasingAmy

Michael Craig is right.  He and I have adopted an unconstructive pattern when we discuss online poker.  I tell him about another shoe dropping relative to the UIGEA and he slips into denial mode.  Once he starts down that path, I get nihilistic on his ass.  We both are getting weary of our button pushing roles.

Our roles are probably dictated by our associations, as is often the case.  Michael has been spending the last six months of his life wrapped up in the Full Tilt book project and has been surrounded by the FT pros that are hanging  their hats on the ”skill vs chance” argument that has yet to be played out in the courts.  And yes, they have probably made more money since Party vacated US space.  

I hang with bloggers, writers, and a number of folks from other online sites.  Let’s just say there isn’t a lot of upside in my little network.  Writers who have been working the PokerStars beat have two ”choices”; unemployment or the Isle of Man; for some reason Michael insists on denying this is the case.  The Party-supported PokerBlog.com is saying adios to most of its bloggers by the end of the year.  The entire Costa Rican Paradise team has been told to pack it in.  US marketing dollars are drying up and, whether we like it or not, online poker ad and affiliate revenue was the fuel running the content machines.  Affilates are totally screwed as they may be the only ones the new law can actually reach out and touch.  And the pros are starting to see the effects as well.  As public sites pull out of the US and the private sites consolidate, there’s going to be a lot less sponsorship money floating about. 

Denial and delusion are soft and fuzzy places.  I’m not surprised that people want to spend time there.  When Harrah’s put out the spin that the UIGEA wouldn’t effect the 2007 WSOP, I didn’t think they actually believed it.  I did raise an eyebrow when I heard a high level WSOP Harrah’s guy say he wasn’t worried about the potential Harrah’s buyout.  He and others in Harrah’s management seem to be under the misconception that private equity firms are like silent partners and would leave the Harrah’s management team intact.  I guess they don’t understand that the whole raison d’etre of private equity firms is to make companies their profit bitches.  Here’s my take on the Harrah’s buyout and poker.     

Maybe its not Paradise Lost.  But face it Michael, this is not neutral for poker - at least not for a lot of the people I hang with. 

If there is a silver lining, it seems that many of the co-sponsors of HR 4411 and HR 4777 are in tight election races.  It will be a bittersweet irony that many of the people that didn’t think twice about putting online poker on the rail will be hugging the Congressional rail.  Maybe with our free time and their free time we can get some games going.  Or maybe not. 

Not only are things changing in the industry, but I suspect things will change about the game itself.  Many online players were able to make a pretty good living playing ABC poker on multiple tables.  As funding accounts gets to be more of a hassle and the legality of online poker becomes even more grey, my guess is that we’re going to lose a higher proportion of fish and recreational players from the online felt.  I think the online player is going to have to access more of the poker alphabet and, perhaps, venture out into the world beyond hold’em. 

I guess that’s why I’m glad that Barry Tanenbaum is out there sharing his wisdom.  To me, Barry is the consummate thinking player’s player.  The wheels are always turning, and Barry talks you through how the gears work.  There aren’t too many articles I read at Card Player these days, but I read Barry’s column religiously.

And just playing the last week online, I’m finding a lot of cushiness in stud and omaha games.  I have a theory that with the recent cult fetish with formats like HORSE and games like razz, more players are finding their way into the mixed games.  My theory also hypothesizes that good hold’em players haven’t come up the learning curve in these games yet.  Theory or hope?  Time will tell.