AimlesslyChasingAmy

I’m not sure why I compare most of life’s activities with poker, but as I was grouting the tile floor last week I realized how tiling was a lot like the early stages of an MTT.  For the most part it’s tedious, but you have to stay aware of what’s going on around you.  While there can be some slop, there will be some hands that you must play with precision.  Patience and position are key.  One of the reasons I thought about this is because I found that my tiling project was facilitated by listening to my EMTT songs. 

I have three major categories of music I listen to while playing an MTT and they aren’t necessarily songs that I listen to outside of playing poker.  E(arly)MTT songs have a nice, but undemanding groove.  M(id)MTT songs have more of a frenetic energy, edge or can be dark.  L(ate)MTT (also applicable for short stacked situations, which are more likely in my case) are basically angry and sinister.  I’m always looking for MTT music suggestions, so if you’ve got some, send them along.  Here are some examples of what I listen to:

EMTT:
In These Shoes? by Kirsty MacColl
Blue Skies by Tommy Dorsey and his Orchestra
Corazón Espinado by Carlos Santana
Pick Up the Pieces by The Average White Band
Cantelope Island by Herbie Hancock

MMTT:
Papa Was a Rolling Stone, I Feel Better Than James Brown, and 11 MPH by Was Not Was
Blue Rondo A La Turk by Dave Brubeck
Whipping Post by the Allman Bros (long MTTs demand the Filmore East Version)
Texas Flood and Cold Shot by Stevie Ray Vaughn

LMTT:
Anything by Tom Waits (Way Down in the Hole works well)
Anything by Morphine
Come As You Are and Smells Like Teen Spirit by Nirvana
Woke Up This Morning by Alabama 3
I Got a Gun by Treat Her Right

And of course it’s hard not to constantly see the similarities between poker and investing.  A few posts ago, I talked about the Federal Reserve overbetting the economic pot pre-flop.  Well if you know anything about poker, you know that they were likely to shove in a continuation bet on the flop.  Investors knew the same; figuring the Fed was going to lower rates again at their next scheduled meeting.  But by how much?  You can’t min raise a continuation bet, especially with such a large bet pre-flop.  So the market was factoring in a .50% decrease in rates.  That’s exactly what happened - and it had little impact on the market. 

Since then, the Fed has been doing a lot of table talk.  Doing their best Jamie Gold impersonation, they’ve been whining about how bad their hand is; predicting that a recession is unavoidable even in light of their rate cuts.  Now a good poker player might act weak with a strong hand.  But as we know from the 2006 WSOP, Gold (the vast majority of the time) told the truth.  I think that’s the case with the Fed.  You have to wonder why, with their hand so weak, they just wouldn’t try to bolster the market with a good game face.  But Gold won the Series and maybe Bernanke will win his test of will against the market.  On the other hand, former Fed Chief Greenspan was playing the ”I’ll show you one card” act; saying that he thought there was a 50/50 chance of a recession.  Because of the way we calculate economic activity, we never can verify that we are in a recession until 3-6 months after we are already in it.  I think there is little doubt that we are in one now - and little doubt that Greenspan knows that too. 

I haven’t written for awhile - not because of my well documented writer’s block - but because of some priorities on the home front.  I really needed to finish the floor; not just for my own sanity, but because I have a new roommate coming in.  I haven’t had a roommate for a couple of years now and wasn’t planning on one any time soon, but a friend in need was reason enough to change my plans.  I finished the floor on Sunday.  I did so much time on my knees, they were bruised like a back alley hooker (analogy inserted for Tao readers.)  Yesterday, I started putting furniture back and began the process of readying the spare bedroom and bathroom.  I can actually walk into my office now and have about 50% of my desk space cleared.  Hopefully my next post will have pics of the new floor - which came out great. 

In other news, Fidel Castro resigned as head of Cuba - which I learned about only after I typed the Was Not Was lyrics above.  One of my very first memories is of Castro driving through the streets of Cambridge Massachusetts on his way to talk at Harvard.  Time rolls on.  Like the song suggests, Havana may indeed go back to the mob - or worse - corporate America.

For any of you that missed Barry Greenstein’s Valentines Day advice, I encourage you to take a listen.  There’s a reason why this guy scores like a rock star.  My brother and I lol’d while listening to this.  If you’re at work, I’d suggest head phones (if you know what I mean). 

The photo theme was pictures I didn’t take of people I know.  The first Bond-esque picture is of BJ, taken by the late great Paul Hannum.  I put that one up there to remind BJ to send me the original.  The second picture is of Jen Leo with Virgin Airways owner, Sir Richard Branson.  You’ll have to read her blog to know how this came about.